EURUSD – Weekly Outlook for 10th December 2021
EURUSD Forecast for Forex
Introduction
The market has been bearish on the higher timeframe, you can see that the US dollar has been strong in the past 4 months as you can see the pair on the OlympTrade forex platform.
Recently, the new variants of COVID-19 called Omicron virus were of concern in the financial market, the market was unsettled before reports shows that the cases have not flooded the hospitals.
EURO and US News
The Indian broker will be watching the steps that will be taken by the Reserve Bank of Indian as they plan to make a statement regarding the monetary policy. Market participants are excepting the committee to raise the reserve repo rate to normalize the policy rate to pre-pandemic levels.
The German Industrial Production m/m
This report is based on the output of manufacturers, mines, and utilities. A report with higher output than the forecast is good for the Euro because it is a leading indicator for the health of the economy and the production reacts quickly based on the business cycle there is a correlation with the consumer in terms of earnings and employment levels.
The forecast is 1.1% while the previous is -0.5%. A higher outcome above the forecast is good for the currency and a lower data is not suitable for the currency.
The US Unemployment Claims
The Unemployment claims are always documented weekly by the department of labor. The reports unveil individuals who are filing for unemployment insurance for the first time that week.
If the number of people who file in for the insurance is lower it will be good for the currency, however, a higher figure is considered negative for the US dollar. The committee on monetary policy is also paying attention to the outcome of the report.
The previous data was 222K while the forecast is 218K.
EURUSD Technical Analysis
Weekly Chart Bearish Starts
Weekly Resistance Level: 1.18992, 1.17088, 1.16841.
Weekly Support Level: 1.11907, 1.5341.
On the weekly time frame, Indian brokers can see that the EURUSD pair is on a bearish
trend because the price has broken below some previous supports like 1.5341 and 1.16841 for the trend to continue on the forex platform.
Currently, the price has found support around the 1.11817 zones, if the bulls can hold the support level, we may see a change in price direction.
Analysis indicates that the government around the Euro zones kept the economy afloat which will attract lenders with lavish guarantees however, the ECB has warned that support will be withdrawn and banks may be ignoring the risks.
Most stocks have recovered from the news of the omicron virus which unsettles the stocks and futures. We can see that Europe’s Stoxx 600 recovered well likewise the Nasdaq 100 futures from the omicron virus news.
Daily Chart Projections: Bearish correction
Daily Resistance levels 1.13830, 1.23495
Daily Support levels 1.11861, 1.12278
From the support level of 24 November 2021 (1.11861) we can see that the bulls took over the market before the market force stopped the advancement around the 1.13830 resistance level.
From the daily timeframe, we can see that the price is pulling down toward the support level of 1.12278. If the price of the EURUSD pair can close lower than the previous support levels, we shall see the bears dominate the market again.
The bulls will need to close above the resistance level of 1.13830 for the market to be in their favor. Traders on India forex platforms will closely monitor the number one most liquid FX pair, as the bears still show control over the EURUSD exchange rate.
H4 Intraday Chart Overview
H4 Resistance levels 1.13474, 1.13338
H4 support levels 1.12274
The H4 timeframe is consolidating because the pair has not broken out of the range. However, the percentage of retail traders who are net-long is about 64%. The crowd sentiment shows that traders are net-long and it’s a suggestion that EURUSD price may continue to fall.
Conclusion and Weekly Price Objectives
The Omicron virus shook the financial market when the announcement was released some days back. The US trade deficit shrank and there was a recovery of about 6% for the Goldman Sachs group basket in the aspects of non-profitable technology firms.
We expect the direction of the EURUSD pair to be clearer after the ECB is through with their meeting during the trading week.
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