USD/INR – Weekly Outlook & Analysis for 7th May 2021
USDINR Forecast & Technical Analysis for Forex
Introduction
The Asian market has seen some recent gains against the weak Greenback in the past months on the Indian brokers platforms, and we expect it to continue for a while before the US dollar becomes strong.
India’s Fundamentals
The emerging markets with a focus on the Indian rupee are making gains against the weak dollar. The Indian shares had an increase in value about 6.2% because of the robust result that was released by a major lender (ICICI Bank) in Asia.
Indian shares NIFTY traded at 1.3% after an outstanding performance of the previous week. The FED monetary policy will accommodate the emerging market policies for while giving them space to ease their policy.
US Fundamentals
NON-FARM PAYROLL
The Bureau of Labor Statistics releases data on the number of people who gained employment as of the previous month and they do not include the farming industry during the report. The reason online broker cares about the report is because of the high impact it has on the market.
It is an important leading indicator in terms of consumer spending and how the overall activity of the economy will perform in the coming weeks as job creation determines for a lot of decision in the economy.
An outcome greater than the forecasts is good for the US dollar, but a lower result will weaken the dollar and strengthens the Indian rupees.
The forecast is 990K while the previous was 916K.
USDINR Price Analysis
Monthly Chart Projection: Resumes Uptrend
Monthly Resistance Levels: 77.0080, 74.9450
Monthly Support Levels: 72.0283, 68.3050, 63.2454
The previous months had been good for the Indian rupee against the dollar, and the greenback slipped into another low amid of the speculation that the Chairperson Jerome Powell will not induce the talk of tapering bond purchases during the policy meeting.
A close above the resistance zones of 77.0080 will mean the bulls have dominated the market for an uptrend continuation. However, if the resistance zone cannot be broken, we may see the USDINR pair reverse downwards from the level to the low of 68.3050.
Weekly Chart
Weekly Resistance Levels: 77.416, 76.330
Weekly Support Levels: 72.276, 70.443, 68.123
On the weekly chart, you can see that the price just broke out of the bearish channel and price is retesting the zone that broke the channel before we experience a bullish run. A close above the 77.416 levels will mean that the bullish trend on the weekly chart continues.
However, the online broker will need to wait for the price to either close below the support level of 72.276 which will trigger online brokers for a short position to the next support 70.443. If we see a rejection of price around the zone of 72.276 for a bullish rally, we shall see an uptrend in the weeks to come.
Daily Projections: Breakout of Descending Triangle
Daily Resistance Levels: 75.31
Daily Support Levels: 72.29
The Indian rupee has shown strength against the weak US dollar, having rejected the 75.31 zone; it is likely that the sell pressure will push the USDINR pair to the 72.29 support zone in the coming days.
On the daily chart, we can see that the bulls are going to wait for the right moment around the 72.29 levels for long position traders to push back the pair for an uptrend.
Bullish Scenario:
From the daily chart, we can get a bullish setup if the price drops to the support level of 72.29 as we expect them to dominate that zone which they have done before.
Bearish Scenario:
The bearish scenario is already playing out on the daily time as you can see the price are dropping towards the low of 73.00 and 72.29 levels. A close below the zone will mean a stronger Indian rupee and a new bearish trend is established.
Conclusion and Projection
The weak dollar in the market is because of the Fed monetary policies accommodating the Asian zone in terms of their policy that will help them ease their own policies for growth and development.
The USDINR pair has to close below the 72.00 zones for the Indian rupee to remain strong on the forex platform in the coming days. If it falls to close below the zone, the bulls will dominate the level for another swing to the upside of the trend.
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